Kentucky Derby contender Zandon winning the G1 Bluegrass Stakes
A combined 37 horses have entered the G1 Kentucky Derby and G1 Kentucky Oaks this weekend with two on the also-eligible (AE) list for the Derby and one on the list for the Oaks (meaning if someone scratches out of the main body of the field, those horses have a chance at getting into their respective races).
Following my yearly first Saturday in May tradition, I dug into the stats on each horse to learn more about the bloodstock side of the entries. You can find the information I put together below!
Sires
There are 27 different stallions with entries between the two races. In the Kentucky Derby, there are 18 stallions with a chance at a representative (this blog includes the sires of the AEs) and there are 14 sires represented in the Kentucky Oaks entries. Gun Runner, Not This Time, Pioneerof the Nile, and Race Day all have two runners in the Kentucky Derby (none of their entries are on the AE list) and Gun Runner has a chance to also have two in the Kentucky Oaks, though one of his is on the AE list there (Beguine).
Five stallions have entries in both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby – Connect, Gun Runner, Munnings, Uncle Mo, and Upstart. Gun Runner has the most entries between the two races with two in the Derby and two in the Oaks.
Ages
This year trends toward a younger group of sires and dams with three first-crop stallions having potential Kentucky Derby runners (Keen Ice’s Rich Strike is on the AE list) and three having runners in the Kentucky Oaks. Both Connect and Gun Runner are first year sires with horses in each. The second-crop sires also have four runners between them in the Kentucky Derby (Hit It a Bomb, Not This Time, and Upstart) and four second croppers have runners in the Kentucky Oaks (Arrogate, Firing Line, Nyquist, Upstart).
The average age of the Kentucky Derby sires in 2018 when this crop was conceived was 9.72 years old. The Oaks trends just a little higher at 10 years of age at conception for the fillies’ sires. The oldest one in the Kentucky Derby is Giant’s Causeway, whose Classic Causeway is from his final crop. In the Kentucky Oaks there are three who were 19 at the time their runners were conceived – Candy Ride, Medaglia d’Oro, and Mineshaft. The youngest stallions in each of the fields is Not This Time (4 years old) in the Derby and there are four 5-year-olds sharing the “youngest” title in the Kentucky Oaks.
The average age of the dams of the Kentucky Derby entrants trend over a year younger than the Derby sires at 8.23 years of age. But in the Oaks, they trend higher at 10.27 years of age vs. the 10.0 for the sires. AE Derby entrant Rich Strike has the oldest dam in that race at 16 (among the body of the field, Classic Causeway also has the oldest dam with 15-year-old Private World) while Pioneer Of Medina, White Abarrio, and Zandon all have dams who were 4 years of age at their conception – the youngest of the field.
In the Kentucky Oaks, the evergreen mare Private Feeling is the oldest dam of the field. She was 19 when Shahama was conceived. Hidden Connection has both one of the youngest sires and the youngest dam with CJ’s Gal visiting Connect when she was five.
Damsires
Candy Ride is making his mark on both fields through his daughters, sons, and his own runner. He is the broodmare sire of both Not This Time’s Kentucky Derby runners (Simplification, and Epicenter). He is also the sire of Gun Runner, who has two Kentucky Derby runners and one runner in the main body of the Kentucky Oaks field. Candy Ride isn’t the broodmare sire of a Kentucky Oaks runner, but he is the sire of main-body entrant Candy Raid.
Smart Strike is the only broodmare sire with two potential Kentucky Derby runners – with AE Rich Strike representing Smart Strike well. He’s not only out of a Smart Strike mare but he’s by Smart Strike’s grandson Keen Ice.
In the Kentucky Oaks A.P. Indy and Medaglia d’Oro both have two runners in the field as damsires.
A.P. Indy is represented by Turnerloose – who is bred on the successful Uncle Mo x A.P. Indy cross as a daughter of Nyquist – and Nest, who is bred on the successful Curlin x A.P. Indy cross. A.P. Indy is also the grandsire of Nostalgic’s damsire Tapit (who is also the damsire of Happy Jack and sire of I’ll Take Charge in the Kentucky Derby). Medaglia d’Oro not only has two runners out of his daughters in the Kentucky Oaks but is also the sire of Nostalgic – the only broodmare sire to also have a runner as a sire in the same race.
Talking Money
It would have cost breeders an average of $58,411.76 to breed to the Kentucky Derby sires (this doesn’t include Japanese sire Reach the Crown) back in 2018 but there were stallions in all price ranges. Four of the Kentucky Derby sires stood at an advertised fee of $10,000 or less (Race Day, Hit It a Bomb Summer Front, and Upstart) while at the other end of the spectrum, three stood for over $100,000 (Pioneerof the Nile, Uncle Mo, Tapit). In 2022, 13 of the stallions are still active sires in North America and average an advertised fee of $65,769 … with the disclaimer that Upstart’s $10,000 advertised fee in included in that average, but he is listed as “Private” now. The most expensive stud fee in both 2018 and 2022 is Tapit, though his fee has dropped from the $300,000 this crop was conceived on.
It is notably more expensive to breed a Kentucky Oaks runner when it comes to advertised stud fee averages. When the field was conceived in 2018, the average was $81,524.22 and that average has risen in 2022. Now it costs an average of $83,051.28 to breed to their sires (again with the disclaimer that Upstart’s early year advertised fee drops the average a bit). Three stallions saw a drop in their fee from 2018 to 2022 and seven had a fee rise in those four years while two stallions are no longer active in North America.
On the sales front, 17 of the 22 Derby entrants and nine Oaks entrants went through the sales ring at least once. Of those, three Derby entrants RNAed during one of their trips through the ring and four Oaks runners did as well.
The three Kentucky Derby runners to go through the ring as 2-year-olds averaged $636,571 though that average is heavily skewed by Taiba’s $1.7 million price tag. White Abarrio sold for $40,000 as a 2-year-old and Summer is Tomorrow sold for $169,743 in France as a juvenile. The 12 who sold as yearlings averaged $245,208.33 with $430,000 Tawny Port the highest priced horse and White Abarrio the least expensive at $7,500. The median for that group was $230,000 with the two who went through the ring but RNAed not counting in that average.
Six of the Derby entrants went through the ring as weanlings, though only four sold with Happy Jack having the dubious distinction of not receiving a bid. Those four who did sell brought an average of $67,500 with a median of $40,000. Smile Happy (who went on to sell for $185,000 as a yearling) was the highest weanling price at $175,000 and Barber Road the cheapest at $15,000 in his only trip through the ring.
Five Kentucky Oaks entrants went through the ring as 2-year-olds with three of them finding new owners before leaving the ring. Those three averaged $238,685.75 with the undefeated Shahama leading the way at $425,000. Not unexpectedly, much of the field went through the ring as yearlings with nine of the 15 entrants visiting the ring at Keeneland or OBS (seven for Keeneland September, two for OBS October). Seven of those sold for an average of $194,020.80 and a median of $192,010. The highest priced runner was the $350,000 Nest and the least expensive was the $35,000 Candy Raid.
Only four went through the ring as weanlings with two of those RNAing. Cocktail Moments was the most expensive of the duo at $135,000 and Kathleen O brought $8,000 with both selling at Keeneland November.
Kentucky Oaks morning line favorite Nest
Breeders
In the Kentucky Oaks, 15 different breeders/breeding partnerships have one horse to cheer on but in the Kentucky Derby, a few have multiple horses. Airdrie has both Summer Is Tomorrow and Zandon in as breeders with the pair by their young stallions Summer Front and Upstart.
Calumet and the Kentucky Derby aren’t strangers and Calumet sees two of their colts entered in the Kentucky Derby. The new(er) ownership kept Happy Jack after he no-bidded as a weanling and are racing him in their silks. Also-eligible Rich Strike started his career racing for his breeder before being claimed at Churchill Downs for $30,000 from them when breaking his maiden by 17 ¼ lengths.
Spendthrift is the third breeder who has two runners from their breeding program in the race. They are the breeder of Race Day’s White Abarrio and Hit It a Bomb’s Tiz The Bomb. Both of those were sold as yearlings.
St Simon Place only has one in the Kentucky Derby but they also have Hidden Connection in the Kentucky Oaks. They are joined by the breeding partnership of Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stable as breeders with a horse in each race.
Inbreeding
Every horse in the Kentucky Derby and all but one in the Kentucky Oaks have inbreeding somewhere in their first five generations.
Of the 22 Kentucky Derby entrants, seven of them see their closest inbreeding as 4 x 5 and eight only have inbreeding in the fifth generation. As discussed previously, Rich Strike has the closest inbreeding of anybody in either field with Smart Strike 3 x 2 in his pedigree.
Classic Causeway’s 3 x 4 cross to Storm Bird also plays a part in his 4 x 5 x 5 breeding to Northern Dancer and Zozo’s 3 x 4 to Storm Cat is included in his 5 x 5 x 5 to Secretariat. Crown Pride is at 3 x 4 to Sunday Silence and 4 x 4 to Mr. P while the others with an inbreeding cross in the third generation are Charge It (3 x 5 to Ruby Slippers) and Messier (4 x 3 x 5 to Mr. Prospector). Another interesting fact is that five horses only have inbreeding to one horse in those first five generations.
On the Kentucky Oaks side, Cocktail Moments is free of any inbreeding in her first five generations and three only have inbreeding in the fifth generation while seven others find their closest inbreeding if the fourth generation. Hidden Connection, Secret Oath, and Nest all have 3 x 4 or 3 x 5 with Nest having 3 x 5 to Mr. Prospector and Hidden Connection and Secret Oath having 3 x 4 to Deputy Minister and Fappiano, respectively.
